000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N78W 
TO  03N90W TO 09N112W TO 06N125W TO 05N140W. THERE IS NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST OF U.S. EXTENDS 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG A NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THROUGH 
30N120W TO 17N108W. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 130-150 KT 
SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH LIES ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH... WITH 
CORE WINDS OF 100-120 KT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TURNING 
NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION SW OF LINE 30N140W 
20N120W 12N110W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED S OF 12N AND E OF 
110W THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF UNIFORM 40-60 KT NW FLOW ON THE 
NE SIDE OF A FLAT BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  

THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATING N OF THE AREA HAS BROUGHT NW SWELL UP 
TO 11 FT TO NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT SPREADS 
SE OVER THE 48 HOURS. 1017 MB WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT NEAR 26N138W WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE N 
WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NE TRADE WINDS IN THE 20 
TO 25 KT RANGE CURRENTLY LIE S OF THIS HIGH W OF 130W FROM 07N 
TO 16N ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS AROUND 1530 UTC. EXPECT 
TRADES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOMORROW BEFORE DIMINISHING 
BELOW 20 KT THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WED NIGHT. SOME COMPUTER MODELS 
SHOW A NARROW BAND OF SW GALES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. 

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...INDUCED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING 
SLOWLY E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDS FROM 19N105W TO 
11N108W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1736 UTC REVEALS NE WINDS OF 
20 KT WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH. PRESENTLY...BASED ON THE 
NAM AND GFS MODELS...WILL HOLD ONTO THIS TROUGH THROUGH THU 
MORNING WHEN IT SHOULD MOVE EWD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRES 
ALSO SLIDES EWD. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT THU MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
THE WINDSAT PASS FROM 1210 UTC INDICATED WINDS JUST BELOW GALE 
FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SO CURRENT 
PEAK WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KT WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE 1558 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF 
20 TO 25 KT WINDS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO E OF 90W. LITTLE CHANGE 
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. NLY WINDS 
OF 20 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH 36 
HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB/SCHAUER