000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N78W TO 03N90W TO 08N115W TO 
04N130W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST OF U.S. EXTENDS 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG A NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THROUGH 
30N122W TO 18N110W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET BRANCH WITH CORE 
WINDS OF 90-110 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TURNING NE 
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION SW OF LINE 30N140W 
20N120W 12N110W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED S OF 12N AND E OF 
110W THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A FLAT BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  

A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N126W TO 24N138W. NW SWELL UP TO 
12 FT IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH 
WHICH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRES 
BEHIND IT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NW SWELL WILL PUSH 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT WITH 
DIMINISHING SEA HEIGHTS OVER TIME. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY 48 HOURS. 
COMPUTER MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF SW GALES OUT AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT MOVING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. WILL 
AWAIT THE 1200 UTC CYCLE OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS BEFORE 
DECIDING ON GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AREA. CURRENTLY...THE 
FORECAST INDICATES SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...INDUCED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING 
SLOWLY E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDS FROM 18N107W TO 
11N111W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0500 UTC REVEALS NE WINDS OF 
20 KT WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH. AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS 
ALSO CORROBORATED THESE WIND SPEEDS. PRESENTLY...BASED ON THE 
NAM AND GFS MODELS...WILL KEEP A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN AREA OF NE WINDS 20 KT ON 
THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD 
BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRES ALSO 
SLIDES EWD.  

GAP WINDS...
THE LAST HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS RECEIVED NEARLY 12 HOURS AGO 
INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WHILE NO DATA WAS AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ON THE 
OTHER HAND...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WHERE NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAP. THE WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. 
NLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA 
THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB