000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W TO 03N103W TO 07N115W TO 
06N130W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST OF U.S. EXTENDS 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N126W 23N120W. A JET-STREAM 
BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH TURNING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION SW OF LINE 
30N140W 20N120W 12N110W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED S OF 12N 
AND E OF 110W THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL 
RIDGE.  

A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N128W TO 24N139W. NW SWELL UP TO 
12 FT FOLLOWS THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 
24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRES BEHIND IT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE N 
WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NW 
SWELL WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR 
AREA...BUT WITH DIMINISHING SEA HEIGHTS WITH TIME. THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
BY 48 HOURS. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF SW GALES OUT 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA. WILL WAIT ON ANOTHER CYCLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BEFORE 
GOING WITH GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AREA. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST 
INDICATES SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...INDUCED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING 
SLOWLY E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...RUNS FROM 6N108W TO 11N112W. 
AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0500 UTC REVEALS NE WINDS OF 20 KT 
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH. AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS ALSO 
CORROBORATED THESE WIND SPEEDS. PRESENTLY...BASED ON THE NAM AND 
GFS MODELS...WILL KEEP A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN AREA OF NE WINDS 20 KT ON THE W 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD BETWEEN 48 
AND 72 HOURS AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH PRES ALSO SLIDES EWD.  

GAP WINDS...
THE 02/0324 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS 
OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE NO DATA 
WAS AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS 
BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...LITTLE CHANGE 
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE NE TO E WINDS OF 
20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAP. THE WINDS 
ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 
THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. NLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA BEGINNING IN 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR