000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG ALONG 0377W TO 04N89W TO 03N103W 
TO 07N116W TO 05N123W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.  

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF OUR 
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY FROM 30N130W TO 24N140W.  NW SWELL UP TO 
13 FT IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY.  SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING N OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT...AS DEPICTED IN THE INFRARED COLD CLOUD TOPS ALONG 
WITH LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LOSE ITS 
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AND A REMNANT TROUGH 
WILL HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE NW SWELL WILL PUSH 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT WITH 
DIMINISHING SEA HEIGHTS WITH TIME. BY 48 HOURS...A NEW FRONT 
WILL BE CLOSELY APPROACHING NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... 
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SW GALES OUT AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT AND MOVING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA. WILL WAIT ON ANOTHER CYCLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BEFORE 
GOING WITH GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AREA. 

TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS HAVE BEEN INDUCED BY MID LEVEL TROUGHS 
MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONE SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM 14-21N ALONG 126W AND ANOTHER FROM 12-18N ALONG 
111/112W. NEITHER ARE KICKING OFF DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH 
SCATTERED SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN A 
COUPLE HUNDRED NM EAST OF THE AXES DUE TO WLY SHEAR ALOFT. 
GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL ALL MOVE SOME SORT OF TROUGH WITH WEAK 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE EASTERN TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD AND 
SPINS UP A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE-LOOKING VORTEX BY36-48 
HOURS...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO THE SW. WHILE THE GFS 
HAS BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...THE OTHER MODELS... 
ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...DO INDICATE AT LEAST A NE-SW 
ORIENTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR 20N SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY 
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...NONE ARE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS.  WILL 
WAIT TIL THE AVAILABILITY OF ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS BEFORE 
INTRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS THERE.

GAP WINDS...
BOTH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAPE EVENTS REMAIN ACTIVE THIS 
EVENING.  WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW FOR CERTAIN...IN THE 
ABSENCE OF QUIKSCAT DATA...THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 1620 UTC 
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE NO DATA WAS AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. BOTH EVENTS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...HOWEVER WITH WIND PEAKS OCCURRING IN THE LATE 
NIGHT-EARLY MORNING TYPICAL MAXIMA...BUT STAYING BELOW GALE 
WARNING CRITERIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING