000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG ALONG 06N77W TO 02N90W TO 
07N114W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF OUR 
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY FROM 30N131W TO 25N140W.  NW SWELL UP TO 
13 FT IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY.  SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING N OF 28.5N WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT...AS DEPICTED IN THE INFRARED COLD CLOUD TOPS ALONG 
WITH LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS.  THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LOSE ITS 
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AND A REMNANT TROUGH 
WILL HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE NW SWELL WILL PUSH 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT WITH 
DIMINISHING SEA HEIGHTS WITH TIME.  

THERE ARE TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 125/126W AND 
ANOTHER ALONG 112/113W.  NEITHER ARE KICKING OFF DEEP 
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A 
COUPLE HUNDRED NM EAST OF THE AXES DUE TO WLY SHEAR ALOFT. THE 
GFS TAKES THE EASTERN ONE NORTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY SPINS UP A 
SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE-LOOKING VORTEX.  ALL OF THE OTHER 
MODELS... ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...DO INDICATE AT LEAST A 
NE-SW ORIENTED TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY 
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...NONE ARE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS.  WILL 
WAIT TIL THE AVAILABILITY OF ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS BEFORE 
INTRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES THERE.

GAP WINDS...
BOTH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO GAPE EVENTS REMAIN ACTIVE THIS 
AFTERNOON.  WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW FOR CERTAIN...IN THE 
ABSENCE OF QUIKSCAT DATA...THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 1620 UTC 
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE NO DATA WAS AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. BOTH EVENTS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH PEAKS 
OCCURRING IN THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING TYPICAL MAXIMA...BUT 
STAYING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING