000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG ALONG 07N78W TO 03N93W TO 
06N114W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF OUR 
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY FROM 30N131W TO 25N140W.  NW SWELL UP TO 
13 FT IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY.  SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING N OF 28N AS DEPICTED IN THE INFRARED 
COLD CLOUD TOPS ALONG WITH LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS.  THE BOUNDARY 
SHOULD LOSE ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AND 
A REMNANT TROUGH WILL HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE NW 
SWELL WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR 
AREA...BUT WITH DIMINISHING SEA HEIGHTS WITH TIME.  

THERE ARE TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ALONG 126W AND ANOTHER 
ALONG 113W.  NEITHER ARE KICKING OFF DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED 
NM EAST OF THE AXES.  THE GFS TAKES THE EASTERN ONE 
NORTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY SPINS UP A SMALL TROPICAL 
CYCLONE-LOOKING VORTEX.  ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS... 
ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...DO INDICATE AT LEAST A NE-SW 
ORIENTED TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY 
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...NONE ARE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS.  WILL 
WAIT TIL THE AVAILABILITY OF ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS BEFORE 
INTRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES.

GAP WINDS...
BOTH THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WIND EVENTS ARE ACTIVE THIS 
MORNING.  WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW FOR CERTAIN...IN THE 
ABSENCE OF QUIKSCAT DATA...THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT APPEARS TO BE 
ABOUT 35 KT WINDS CURRENTLY.  A GOOD ASCAT PASS LATE LAST NIGHT 
PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25 TO 30 KT WEST OF NICARAGUA.  BOTH 
EVENTS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH PEAKS OCCURRING IN THE 
LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING TYPICAL MAXIMA...BUT STAYING BELOW 
WARNING CRITERIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA