000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG ALONG 06N77W TO 03N95W TO 
05N109W TO 05N120W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A BROAD FLAT MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL W TO 
W-NW FLOW NOTED N OF 10-15N. A FEW UPPER LEVER PERTURBATIONS ARE 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED 
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EXTENDS S INTO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER A VAST AREA 
S OF 23N W OF 110W WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN N OF 23N. MODERATE 
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS 
ALSO NOTED E OF 100W.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N125W IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THIS WEAK RIDGE IS PRODUCING A 
MODEST AREA OF NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 
04N TO 12N W OF 130W AS INDICATED BY THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT 
PASS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY IN 24 HOURS BUT WILL 
INCREASE AGAIN BY 48 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 
16N127W TO 12N129W. NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN 240 NM 
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATED 
IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ IS LOCATED ALONG 110W/111W S OF 09N. SHALLOW 
CONVECTION IS SEEN MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT IS 
MOVING ACROSS THE NW WATERS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A 
POSITION FROM 30N126W TO 25N132W IN 24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

REGIONAL SEAS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY NWLY SWELL...AND ARE 
RUNNING IN THE 8 TO 10 FOOT RANGE N OF 20N W OF 110W. A NEW 
PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

GAP WINDS...
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WHERE A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND 
THEN PULSE UP AND DOWN AT 20-25 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS 
OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FUNNELS THROUGH THE 
GAP. THE WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. THIS WEATHER 
PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR