000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010351 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON FEB 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 03N82W TO 03N97W TO 05N109W TO 06N130W TO 02N138W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD FLAT MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC EXTENDING E INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO 125W...WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL W TO W-NW FLOW NOTED N OF 10-15N. A FEW UPPER LEVER IMPULSES/PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...BUT ARE GENERALLY ENCOUNTERING A STABLE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...YIELDING FAIR STABLE WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS STRONG MID LATITUDE FLOW SPLITS NEAR 110W FROM 10-18N...AS IT APPROACHES MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. INTO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NEAR 110W...ONE BRANCH OF THE JET TURNS NE AND JOINS A VERY BROAD REGION OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN/E GLFMEX UPPER RIDGE... WHILE THE SRN BRANCH CONTINUES DIVING SE AND THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 05N83W. AN UPPER CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS EXTENDS S TO NEAR 27N112W...WITH THIS SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH LAGGING ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BEHIND A SRN STREAM L/W TROUGH FROM NEAR 30N109W SE TO NEAR 05N83W. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BECOME MORE IN PHASE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE AS THE7 LIFT NE TO E-NE ACROSS THE WEAKENING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR 30N124W AND IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SE TO NEAR 28N122W BY 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THIS WEAK RIDGE IS PRODUCING A MODEST AREA OF NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE FROM 04N TO 10N W OF 130W AS INDICATED BY LATE MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY IN 24 HOURS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY 48 HOURS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ARE LOCATED ALONG 110W/111W AND ALONG 135W/136W...BOTH S OF 8N. SHALLOW CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THESE TROUGHS...WITH VERY ISOLATED MODERATE TOPPED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALONG 110/111W. A COLD FRONT WAS STALLING ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W. S TO SW WINDS OF 20 KT WERE NOTED N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION FROM 30N130W TO 26N131W TO 24N140W IN 24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. REGIONAL SEAS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY NWLY SWELL...AND ARE RUNNING IN THE 8 TO 12 FOOT RANGE N OF 20N W OF 125W. A NEW PULSE OF NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. GAP WINDS... A HIGH RESOLUTION 1245 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35-40 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 12-15 HOURS...AND THEN PULSE UP AND DOWN AT 20-25 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS... WHILE NLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN AT OR BELOW 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING