000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300352 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JAN 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 05N76W TO 02N87W TO 05N105W TO 05N121W TO 03N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 101W AND 115W...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO PERTURBATIONS MOVING W ALONG THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 105W... A STRONG MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE W COAST OF THE UNITED STATES EXTENDED SE TO 26N BETWEEN 115W AND 1285W...WITH THE AXIS ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH 38N126W TO 30N120W TO 27N122W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED THROUGH 30N128W TO 25N140W. A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH THE AXIS N OF 32N ALONG 113/114W. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A VERY ENERGETIC MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS LIFTING OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH A ASSOCIATED TROUGHING LINGERING BACK TO THE SW NEAR 32N107W. S OF 26N...A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM ALONG 10N S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE W COAST. DIRECTLY S OF THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 113/114W WAS A BROAD SRN STREAM MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY E ALONG 112/113W TO 12N THEN EXTENDED SW TO THE ITCZ AT 120W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF ABOUT 120W S OF 20N AND WAS STRONGEST S OF 13N W OF 125W. STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE N OF ABOUT 18N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO LOCATED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 06N W OF 115W. WINDS THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 105W AND 115W S OF ABOUT 18N WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 70 KNOTS. AT THE SURFACE A 1019 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE NEAR 30N121W AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A 1021 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED W OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N139W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE TO NEAR 33N132W IN 24 HOURS. LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO EVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND WERE DRIVING SEAS 15 TO 17 FT ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS. NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WERE DEPICTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM 05N TO 16N W OF 127W. TWO PERTURBATION WITHIN THE ITCZ WERE LOCATED ALONG 105W AND 120W...AND WERE ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY A NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT WIND FLOW...BOTH MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. E OF 105W... MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED E OF 105W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED E OF ABOUT 95W INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE BROAD AND STRONG ELY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE EPAC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GAP WINDS WEAKENING IN TURN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL PULSING...WHILE N WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO FORCE GALES THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 00Z SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING