000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 04N100W TO 07N112W TO 
05N122W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 108W TO 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CONUS 
ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 07N115W. W AND NW OF THIS 
TROUGH AXIS IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH LOCATED S 
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 13N160W. ANOTHER BROAD AND FLAT 
RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FORECAST REGION AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE TRANSPORTING 
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PARTICULARLY IN A BAND  
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. THIS MOISTURE IS ALSO AFFECTING CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 70-110 KT JET SEGMENT IS NOTED 
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.   

AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 30N125W 
EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH WATERS MAINLY N OF 18N. FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH ARE 
EVIDENT ON AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS...AND A RECENT ASCAT DATA. 
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 
TO 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NW 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 
KT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH 
AS 19 FT HAVE MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT 
WHICH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER THE FAR 
NW WATERS SAT AFTERNOON. S TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...BELOW 20 
KT...BEHIND IT. OUTSIDE OF GAP WINDS DESCRIBED BELOW...THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW. THE 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE 
REGIONAL WATERS RAISING SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT. A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH GOES FROM 08N114W TO 03N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE AXIS.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT 
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN...POSSIBLE REACHING GALE 
FORCE LATE SAT INTO SUN AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THIS 
AREA. 

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND THEN DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 92W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. 

NLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT 
WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING