000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290351 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JAN 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 02N78W TO 05N104W TO 04N113W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES S-SW TO NEAR 10N120W CONTINUING SW TO 06N129W...THEN CONTINUED NEARLY W AS A TUTT AXIS TO NEAR 04N150W. W AND NW OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WAS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 13N S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...EXTENDING NE...WHILE ANOTHER BROAD AND FLAT RIDGE WAS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE EPAC ALONG 92W...N AND NE ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ERODING THE W FLANKS OF THIS EASTERNMOST RIDGE EASTWARD....AND EFFECTIVELY NUDGING IT EWD. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS TELECONNECTING WITH A LARGE UPPER CYCLONE ABOUT 15 DEGREES TO ITS S...AND OVER THE S PACIFIC...AND THE TWO FEATURES WERE ACTING TO FORM A BROAD BAND OF EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OF 50-80 KT BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WAS A COMPLEX MID TO UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EXTREME SW NEW MEXICO...WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SE ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF OLD MEXICO THEN SW TO NEAR 17N118W. A 50-65 KT JET SEGMENT WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS MID-UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING ACROSS SRN BAJA AND INTO NRN MEXICO. AN ELONGATED PORTION OF THE MID TO UPPER CYCLONE WAS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE ACROSS N TEXAS AND WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE NE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT RIDES OVER THE RIDGE. A COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER CYCLONE...WITH AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH DISSIPATED AS IT LIFTED OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES AND WAS REFORMING ACROSS EXTREME NRN MEXICO AND SW TEXAS. NW TO N FLOW UP TO 20 KT WAS OCCURRING IN THE NRN THIRD OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS COMPLEX SURFACE LOW. A THIRD UPPER CYCLONE AND TROUGH WAS MOVING E AND INTO THE FAR NE PACIFIC AND USHERING A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE EXTREME NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A NEW PULSE OF NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE...A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED E OF THE NEW COLD FRONT...NEAR 33N125W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING S TO THE ITCZ. THE INDUCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRODUCING NE TO E TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 16N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 155W. OUTSIDE OF GAP WINDS DESCRIBED BELOW...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WAS UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA AND IS MIXING WITH FADING SW SWELL ARRIVING FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE. GAP WINDS... STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE FLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATING THROUGH THE PREFERRED GAPS AND GULFS OF THE EPAC. NLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT AND WILL FALL FURTHER BELOW 20 KT AFTER SUNRISE. A BROAD AND ELONGATED PLUME OF 20-30 KT WINDS IS FLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM TAPERING OFF TO A NARROW PLUME TO NEAR 105W...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA HAVE BEEN REACHING AS FAR S AS 03N...KICKING UP SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW AND W SWELL. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AFTER 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING