000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282215 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JAN 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 01N85W TO 06N104W TO 04N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 109W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S. S-SW 15N117W CONTINUING SW TO 07N127W THEN CONTINUED NEARLY W AS A TUTT AXIS TO NEAR 06N150W. W AND NW OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WAS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 13N S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...EXTENDING NE...WHILE ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE WAS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE EPAC ALONG 92W...N AND NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN GRADUALLY NUDGING THIS EASTERNMOST TROUGH EASTWARD. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS TELECONNECTING WITH A LARGE UPPER CYCLONE WELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES TO ITS S...AND OVER THE S PACIFIC...AND THE TWO FEATURES WERE ACTING TO FORM A BROAD BAND OF EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES OF 50-75 KT BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WAS A COMPLEX MID TO UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF OLD MEXICO TO 20N114W. A PORTION OF THE MID TO UPPER CYCLONE WAS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE ACROSS N TEXAS AND WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE NE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT RIDES OVER THE RIDGE. A COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER CYCLONE...WITH AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH DAMMED UP ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES AND EXITING THE W COAST OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A THIRD UPPER CYCLONE AND TROUGH WAS MOVING E AND INTO THE FAR NE PACIFIC AND USHERING A NEW COLD FRONT INTO THE EXTREME NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ELSEWHERE...A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED E OF THE NEW COLD FRONT...NEAR 33N125W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING S TO THE ITCZ. THE INDUCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRODUCING NE TO E TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 16N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 155W. OUTSIDE OF GAP WINDS DESCRIBED BELOW...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WAS UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA AND IS MIXING WITH FADING SW SWELL ARRIVING FROM THE SRN HEMISPHERE. GAP WINDS... STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE FLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATING THROUGH THE PREFERRED GAPS AND GULFS OF THE EPAC. NLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT AND WILL FALL FURTHER IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. A BROAD AND ELONGATED PLUME OF 20-30 KT WINDS IS FLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 105W...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA HAVE BEEN REACHING AS FAR S AS 03N...KICKING UP SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SW AND W SWELL. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AFTER 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING