000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272215
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 04N77W TO 03N80W TO 06N86W TO 
03N102W 05N124W TO 03N140W. ISOLATED TO MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM N AND 45 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 
125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION IN 
THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND WAS MOVING E-SE NEAR 15 KT...AND LOCATED 
NEAR 29.5N114W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S AND SW FROM 
23N116W TO 12N132W. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO 
SPREAD SE ACROSS THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA 
N OF 24N ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE N QUARTER OF MEXICO AND 
INTO THE DESERT SW OF THE U.S. THIS DEEP LAYERED LOW HAD AN 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOCATED DIRECTLY BELOW MOVING INTO THE 
FAR N GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING S 
THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND THEN ARCHING SW ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA 
NEAR 27N AND CONTINUING AS A DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO NEAR 
22N120W. 

THE TROUGH HAS BECOME ABSORBED INTO A RATHER SHARP LONG WAVE 
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. EXTENDING S-SW ACROSS THE ITCZ 
ALONG 120W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGES SANDWICHED THIS SHARP UPPER 
TROUGH ON EITHER SIDE...BOTH TILTED INWARD TOWARDS THE TROUGH 
AXIS...AND AIDING IN ITS SLOWED PROGRESSION. THE MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE AND OVER THE 
RIDGE TO ITS EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE SRN PORTION 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SLOWLY EWD TO ALONG 110W BY FRI 
EVENING. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED UNDER THE WRN RIDGE AT 
THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITHIN 6-8 DEGREES OF 09N141W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT ACROSS BAJA AND THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD MOVE E OF AREA TONIGHT. WEAKENING HIGH 
PRESSURE NEAR 36N128W EXTENDED S-SW TO 15-20N...PRODUCING NE 
TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 11N TO NEAR 20N W OF 125W...AND A SOLID 25 
KT FROM 11N S TO THE ITCZ W OF 128W. THE ASSOCIATED NE WIND 
SWELL GENERATED BY THESE TRADES WAS MIXING WITH SUBSIDING NW 
SWELLS THAT HAVE BEEN PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS. 
THE REMAINING WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA WERE 
DOMINATED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES LESS THAN 20 KT...AND 
MIXED FADING NW AND SW SWELL. 

GAP WINDS...N WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON THU. 
NE TO E TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH  THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 TO 30 KT AND EXPANDING IN A NARROW W-SW 
PLUME TO 93W...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. 
NORTHERLY WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AT 20 TO 30 
KT AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING