000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 03N77W TO 06N86W TO 03N97W 05N123W 
TO 03N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING 
FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN CLUSTERS 
WITHIN 60 NM 08N87W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 05N103W AND 04N111W 
AND 06N123W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 31N118W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING S AND SW FROM 20N119W TO 12N126W TO 03N140W. A BAND OF 
UPPER MOISTURE IS SWEEPING SE INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA N OF 
27N4W BETWEEN 130W AND 122W. UPPER MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED E OF 
THE CYCLONE AND TROUGH...SPREADING ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 
OVER THE SW CONUS TO THE N OF 24N BETWEEN 116W AND 110W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 16N100W. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
UPPER LEVELS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE...ROUGHLY SE OF LINE 
00N120W TO 24N92W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED  ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 102W AND 124W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW 
SPREADING NE TO NEAR 13N106W. EXCEPT AS MENTIONED...THE UPPER 
LEVELS ARE VERY DRY S OF 27N ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N117W TO 22N130W 
AND SHOULD MOVE E OF AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 31N137W
AND WILL SHIFT E ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW 
WATERS FRI ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELLS. NE TRADES 
TO 20 KT OVER THE SW PORTION WITH THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL 
COMPONENT MIXING WITH SUBSIDING NW SWELLS THAT HAVE BEEN 
PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS ALL THE WAY TO THE 
COAST OF S AMERICA AT THE EQUATOR. 

GAP WINDS...N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE LATE THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT ON THU. NE TO E TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE 
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 TO 30 KT AND EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SURGING THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PANAMA AT 20 TO 30 KT AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 TO 
25 KT FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NELSON