000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262210
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 06N75W TO 04N81W TO 05N87W TO 
02N96W TO 06N119W TO 02W140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 02N TO 05N E OF 85W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 06N115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WAS NEARING THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST AND EXTENDED FROM A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 
33N124.5W TO 28N122W THEN WAS MERGING WITH A LONGER WAVE MID TO 
UPPER TROUGH FROM 27N117W TO 17N130W. AMPLE MULTILAYERED 
MOISTURE WAS SWEEPING E AND NE N OF 28N...ON THE E SIDE OF THIS 
TROUGHING...AND INTO S AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. 

A SMALL AND  WEAK UPPER CYCLONE WAS STILL OBSERVED NEAR 07N104W 
AND WAS ENHANCING A FEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY E 
TO 100W. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CURL WAS NOTED JUST 
TO THE NW NEAR 11N115W...YIELDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE 
E AND SE...AND ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE 
ITCZ AND E TO 111W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM 05N93W NW TO BEYOND 30N100W 
AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 87W. 
EXCEPT AS MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY S OF 27N 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 26N130W TO 
26N134W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS COLLAPSED SE OF THE FRONT 
NEAR 24N126W...LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE MOVING E AND SE...REACHING CENTRAL BAJA WED EVENING. NE 
TRADES TO 20 KT CONTINUE S OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE WATERS W OF 
120W WITH THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL COMPONENT MIXING WITH NW 
SWELLS PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 88W. 

GAP WINDS...
N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. NE TO E TRADES OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 
20-25KT AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT AND SPREAD NW TO 
INCLUDE THE GULF OF FONSECA WED NIGHT INTO THU. NORTHERLY WINDS 
ARE  SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
EXPECTED THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING