000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 05N77W TO 02N93W TO 05N118W TO 
02W140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED FROM 02N TO 05N E OF 85W AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM OF 
06N115W.

...DISCUSSION...

A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 32N125W TO 
22N120W. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS SWEEPING SE INTO THE TROUGH 
OVER THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 120W.

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES EASTERN N AMERICA WITH AN 
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ALONG 30N90W TO 20N94W. THE SW EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL 
NOTED ALONG 18N118W TO 05N140W WITH ITCZ CONVECTION ENHANCED AT 
06N115W. 

A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NEAR 07N105W AND ENHANCED A 
FEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS EARLIER NEAR 06N103W...BUT THEY HAVE 
DISSIPATED LEAVING A SMALL AREA OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE. 

AN UPPER ANTICYLONE IS NOTED 05N97W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO 
BEYOND 32N110W AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION E OF 85W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. EXCEPT AS 
MENTIONED...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY S OF 27N ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 27N140W. 
HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 24N131W AND IS BLOCKING THE SE PROGRESSION 
OF THE FRONT WHILE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
E REACHING WED NIGHT. NE TRADES TO 20 KT CONTINUE S OF THIS 
RIDGE OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W WITH THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL 
COMPONENT MIXING WITH NW SWELLS PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE 
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 88W. 

GAP WINDS...
N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE WED AFTERNOON. NE TO E TRADES OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 KT 
AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT AND SPREAD N TO INCLUDE 
THE GULF OF FONSECA WED NIGHT INTO THU. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE  
SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NELSON