000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 04N77W TO 03N85W TO 05N105W TO 
02N127W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
05N77W TO 02N90W AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF 04N116W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 32N137W TO 19N131W. A LONGWAVE UPPER 
TROUGH DOMINATES CENTRAL N AMERICA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING 
S INTO THE AREA FROM 32N93W TO 18N100W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 
13N110W INTO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 04N122W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYLONE IS NOTED 05N140W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE ALONG 
15N129W TO A CREST WHICH IS AMPLIFYING N OVER CALIFORNIA NEAR 
36N118W. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 24N137W TO 32N126W AND THEN TURNS E ACROSS THE 
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS TO THE N OF 30N BEFORE TURNING 
SE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND NOW OVER EXTREME N CENTRAL 
OLD MEXICO NEAR 29N104W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ 
NEAR 03N116W WITH ITS DEBRIS MOISTURE QUICKLY EVAPORATING AS THE 
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY FROM 03N TO 27N W OF 90W.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC E OF 100W 
WITH ITS UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION AS 
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.
  
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 27N140W.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 29N124W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 23N140W AND IS 
BEGINNING TO BLOCK THE SE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. NE TRADES  
TO 20 KT CONTINUE S OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE WATERS W OF 120W WITH 
THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL COMPONENT MIXING WITH NW SWELLS 
PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 95W. 

NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT N THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH 
TONIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...
N WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 35 
KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. NE TO E TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TO 
INCREASE AND SPREAD N TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF FONSECA BY WED. 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA 
ON TUE AND CONTINUE INTO WED. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NELSON