000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N78W TO 05N90W TO 06N98W TO 02N127W TO 05N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 75 NM S OF 
AXIS E OF 85W.

...DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AT 04N137W 
EXTENDING TO 32N120W AND LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH VORTEX N OF 
AREA DIGGING S TO SMALL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 05N115W DOES GOOD JOB 
KEEPING LARGE PORTION OF E PAC VERY DRY AND STABLE FROM 08N-29N. 
MOISTURE MOUNT AROUND RIDGE CREST MOVING INTO MID PAC COASTAL 
AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON.  DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA BRINGS MINOR AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO ITCZ BARELY 
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 85W. 

ANOTHER STRONG UPSTREAM CYCLONIC VORTEX POSES NO THREAT TO 
FORECAST WATERS AS IT SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT JUST ENTERED NW CORNER OF BASIN BRINGING STRONG SW 
WINDS AHEAD OF IT TO 130W.  SURFACE RIDGE BLOCK OF ITS UPPER 
LEVEL SUPPORTING TROUGH KEEPS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS N OF 
25N THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD...BUT ITS ATTENDANT NW SWELLS AS 
HIGH AS 15-18 FT SPREAD THROUGH ENTIRE E PAC.  FORECAST FOLLOWS 
NWW3 MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH HAD GOOD HANDLE ON SWELLS THROUGH 
EPISODE.  HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB AT 30N122W MAINTAINS FRESH 
TRADES AROUND ITS S-SW PERIPHERY THROUGH PERIOD.

FRESH NW GULF OF CALIFORNIA BREEZE DIMINISHES BY TUE AS HIGH 
PRES MOVES INLAND FORCED BY INCOMING COLD FRONT.  

GAP WINDS...
FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE MON AS 
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS BECOME STRONG 
EARLY TUE AS PRES GRADIENT ALONG SE MEXICO INTENSIFIES.

FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO FORECAST EARLY TUE AND 
INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES