000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 05N102W TO 02N121W 
TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 90W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 131W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AT 04N134W 
EXTENDING TO 32N122W AND LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH VORTEX WE N 
OF AREA LONG 98W DIGGING S TO SMALL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 04N115W 
DOES A GOOD JOB KEEPING LARGE PORTION OF E PAC VERY DRY AND 
STABLE FROM 09N-29N.  MOISTURE ROUNDS AROUND RIDGE CREST MOVING 
INTO MID PAC COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON.  DOWNSTREAM 
RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH AMERICA BRINGS MINOR AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE INTO ITCZ BARELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED MODERATE / 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF 90W. 

ANOTHER STRONG UPSTREAM CYCLONIC VORTEX POSES NO THREAT TO 
FORECAST WATERS AS IT SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FAR NW CORNER OF BASIN BRING STRONG SW 
WINDS AHEAD OF IT TO 130W.  UPPER LEVEL BLOCK OF SUPPORTING 
TROUGH KEEPS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS N OF 25N THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT ITS ATTENDANT NW SWELLS AS HIGH AS 15-18 
FT SPREAD THROUGH ENTIRE E PAC.  FORECAST FOLLOWS NWW3 MODEL 
GUIDANCE WHICH HAD GOOD HANDLE ON SWELLS THROUGH EPISODE.  HIGH 
PRES CENTER 1025 MB AT 30N122W MAINTAINS FRESH TRADES AROUND ITS 
S-SW PERIPHERY THROUGH PERIOD.

FRESH NW GULF OF CALIFORNIA BREEZE DIMINISHES BY TUE AS HIGH 
PRES MOVES INLAND FORCED BY INCOMING COLD FRONT.  

GAP WINDS...
FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE MON AS 
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS BECOME STRONG 
EARLY TUE AS PRES GRADIENT ALONG SE MEXICO INTENSIFIES.

FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO FORECAST EARLY TUE AND 
INCREASE TO 25 KT LATE TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES