000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 04N87W 6N100W 3N115 3N128W 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-87W...AND 30 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 79W-81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AND DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL E OF THE AREA OVER 
THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS SSW TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. IN ITS
WAKE BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE AREA
N OF ABOUT 18N WITH A AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 126W. WITH THE JET 
STREAM BRANCH NOW HAVING SHIFTED TO ALONG 30N...THE BULK OF 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS NOW TRACKING TO THE N OF THE AREA PRIMARILY 
AROUND A VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER VORTEX WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
44N139W. A NARROW DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS VORTEX W 
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 145W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE 
COLD FRONT IS JUST APPROACHING THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA WITH
SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OUT AHEAD OF IT TO A LINE FROM 30N131W
TO 26N140W. THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HRS FORCING THE PRESENT RIDGE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO THEN
EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N127W TO 26N137W AND WEAKEN AS MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. LATEST NOAA
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING UP TO 16 FT IN NW SWELL
OVER THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA WITHIN ABOUT 24 HR...THEN 
GRADUALLY SPREAD E.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS OVER THE SW PORTION
OF THE AREA NEAR 6N135W WITH A WEAK RIDGE NE TO 14N120W TO 
15N103W. DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW JUST S OF THE RIDGE CENTER IS
PROVIDING UPPER VENTILATION FOR ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 130W.   
TO THE E OF THE ANTICYCLONE...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS NEAR 4N113W WITH A TROUGH NE TO THE SW GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT TO THE SE
OF THE TROUGH KEEPING ITCZ CONVECTION ACTIVE BETWEEN 79W-87W.
ELSEWHERE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAIN STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PRESSING SWD OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA W OF 100W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N122W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO SW OF THE AREA AT 22N140W. THIS
HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVING W ALONG
THE ITCZ W OF 110W WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS 
FROM 4N TO 15N AND W OF 115W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS AS THE 
HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY. SEAS OF 10-17 FT IN NW SWELL THROUGH
THIS AREA WILL SUBSIDE TO 9 TO 12 FT IN 48 HRS.

GAP WINDS...
N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
BEGINNING MON EVENING A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO ON MON. THESE WINDS THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 25 KT
BY TUE MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG SE MEXICO INTENSIFIES.

PAPAGAYO NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN EARLY TUE 
MORNING AND INCREASE TO 25 KT DURING THE MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE