000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS WAS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 5N93W 4N110W 4N125W 5N132W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM 
S OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN 
INFLUENCING THE AREA'S WEATHER REGIME HAS NOW MOVED E OF 
THE AREA TO THE WESTERN U.S. WITH ITS BASE REACHING SW TO 
NEAR 16N107W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ITS ASSOCIATED
MOSITURE ALSO HAVING SHIFTED TO WELL E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDING HAS MOVED IN BEHIND IT COVERING THE AREA 
N OF ABOUT 19N WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER DEEP TROPICAL ZONE NEAR 
8N133W. WITH THE RIDGE NOW IN PLACE...THE STRONG JET STREAM 
WHICH HAD BEEN DRIVING STRONG COLD FRONTS S INTO THE AREA OVER 
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS LIFTED NWD TO ALONG 30N/31N. JET CORE 
WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 70-150 KT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WELL E OF THE AREA OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDED A RIDGE W TO CENTRAL AMERICA...AND TO 
NEAR 15N95W.

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL E OF THE AREA ACROSS THE 
SRN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDED SW ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NEAR 4N94W.
W TO NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG THE ITCZ ALLOWING FOR ITCZ
CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACTIVE W OF ABOUT 131W.

FURTHER W...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WAS 
MOVING E WITH TIME WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ABOUT 450 NM
NW OF THE AREA. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N135W. THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE TO NEAR 26N130W IN ABOUT 24 HRS
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SW WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 16 FT IN NW SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL SPREAD
FROM W TO E ACROSS THE NRN WATERS THROUGH MON PER LATEST 
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.

NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE FROM 5N TO 15N THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HRS AS A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVE W THROUGH THE 
ITCZ.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE 
AREA WITH MAX SEAS DOWN TO ABOUT 25 FT N OF 24N E OF 127W WITH 
SEAS OF 19 OR 20 FT ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL BAJA COAST ALSO 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS.

GAP WINDS...
N WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN
ABOUT 30 HRS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE