000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 06N88W TO 05N117W TO 06N121W TO 07N130W TO 
05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
E OF 85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS FROM 96W-105W AND W OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 142W ABOUT TO CROSS 
INTO E PAC BRINGING STRONG JET CORE 185 KT OVER ITS CREST.  JET 
SLIDES BETWEEN RIDGE CREST AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CENTERED 
AT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX WELL N OF AREA.  SEVERAL SHORT 
WAVES RACE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH ADVECTING ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE...AND ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.  AS RIDGE MOVE E 
IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO FORCE TROUGH FURTHER N USHERING DRY AND 
STABLE AIR MASS BACK TO REGION.

SECOND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC MAINTAINS DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER REMAINDER OF 
BASIN N OF 10N.  THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE ALONG 
ITCZ WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG TWO WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGHS ALONG 133W AND 103W.         

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING 140W BRINGS STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF 
BOUNDARY...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N 
OF 30N AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS FORCED N BY RIDGE 
MENTIONED ABOVE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1016 MB AT 18N110W WEAKENS AS IT IS 
FORCED FURTHER E OVER MEXICO BY NEW COLD FRONT.  NEW RIDGE WITH 
1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTER BUILDS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO CROSS E PAC BASIN AND 
POUND COASTAL AREAS WITH HIGH BREAKERS AS HIGH AS 20 FT.  SWELL 
TRAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING E PAC THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS 
AND BEYOND. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES