000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JAN 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 6N91W 5N102W 5N115W 6N121W 7N131W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-120W AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W-139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-86W. ...DISCUSSION... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL E OF THE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDED SW ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NEAR 7N96W. STRONG NW TO WLY FLOW ALOFT N OF ABOUT 19N DESCRIBED BELOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH WEAK TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE S OF 19N BETWEEN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND 110W. GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE S SIDE OF RIDGE WAS ALLOWING FOR ITCZ CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE W OF ABOUT 118W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING E IS OVER SE MEXICO NEAR 19N95W WITH A RIDGE SW TO A COL REGION NEAR 14N112W. POLAR VORTEX MOVING LITTLE REMAINS WELL N OF THE REGION OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC WITH AN ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO ALONG THE U.S WEST COAST AND S INTO THE AREA TO 25N119W AND SE TO JUST NW OF THE COL REGION NEAR 14N112W. WITH THIS VORTEX STILL IN PLACE...A STRONG JET STREAM BRANCH CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION N OF 20N WITH THE AXIS RUNNING FROM 29N140W TO 24N123W TO 25N116W AND NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO OVER THE WESTERN U.S. JET CORE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 100-160 KT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EXISTING JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DROP COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HRS ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO DIG FAR S ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA...OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO. AMPLE MOISTURE AND STRONG DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S TO 30N113W TO 21N120W TO 15N104W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PRESSING SWD WELL INTO THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LARGE FETCH OF 30-40 KT W OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST OF THE WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION. THE 40 KT WINDS WERE JUST N 30N. VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS OVER A VERY LONG FETCH AREA COVER THE AREA W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH MAX SEAS TO 31 FT NEAR 30.5N132W. EXPECT LARGE SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO NEAR 19 FT TO IMPACT BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 36 HRS LEADING TO VERY LARGE SURF...AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THEREAFTER. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LONG PERIOD NW TO N SWELLS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE SEAS OVERSPREADING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE SLOWLY DECREASING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 18 HRS AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER IN ABOUT 48 HRS WITH SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT PRECEDING IT ALONG AND WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FT IN NW SWELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE