000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N78W TO 05N93W TO 04N104W TO 08N127W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM HONDURAS TO SMALL BUT WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONE AT 01N120W MAINTAINS DRY ZONAL FLOW S AND E OF 
AXIS.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRIES AIR MASS W OF AXIS N 
OF 10N AS VERY STRONG JET CORE OVER CREST OF UPSTREAM RIDGE 
MOVES OVER NW PART OF BASIN.  JET SPEEDS OVER 200 KT TRAPPED 
BETWEEN RIDGE AND DEEP LAYER CYCLONE...AND ITS ATTENDANT 
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...N OF BASIN BRINGS ACTION PACKED 
ENERGY IN SUPPORT OF INCOMING COLD FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS 
ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY N OF 25N.   

UPPER LEVEL WINDFLOW EXPECTED TO ALLOW SHORTWAVE TO MOVE SE INTO 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONTS MOVE SE 
INTO E PAC.  WITH UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE... 
ONLY A LACK OF MOISTURE PREVENT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT.    

GALES SWEEP ACROSS BASIN N OF 25N DURING NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS 
WILL GENERATE LARGE LON PERIOD NW SWELLS PROPAGATING SE THROUGH 
ENTIRE AREA.  SEAS ABOVE 30 FT EXPECTED THROUGH THU NEAR NW 
PORTION OF BASIN.    

GAP WINDS 
STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY LATE THU.

MODERATE TO STRONG N WIND ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA DIMINISH BELOW 
20 KT EARLY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES