000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 02N79W TO 05N92W TO 05N105W TO 09N120W TO 05N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF 
AXIS W OF 107W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TO SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 02N120W HAS VERY DRY AIR MASS 
CONVERGING ALONG AND WITHIN 10-12 DEG W OF ITS AXIS KEEPING 
LARGE REGION OF BASIN UNDER LOW LEVEL STRATIFIED CLOUDS. A 50 
KT JET CORE HAS BARELY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ NEAR WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 
92W. 

ENORMOUSLY BROAD UPSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED WITH ANTICYCLONE AT 
14N155W MOVING E BRINGS EVEN DRIER STABLE AIR MASS INTO E PAC 
JUST N OF ITCZ W OF ABOVE TROUGH.  DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WELL N OF 
REGION PACKS 200 KT JETSTREAM MOVING JUST N OF RIDGE INTO NW 
CORNER OF E PAC ALONG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS DISCUSSED 
BELOW.   

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT FROM 32N119W TO 25N130W BRING GALE FORCE SW WINDS E 
OF BOUNDARY BUT MOVES NE OF BASIN WITHIN 6 HRS.  NEW COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT MOVES INTO 
BASIN WITHIN 12 HRS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SWEEPS THROUGH E PAC N OF 25N THROUGH THU.  

STRONG E WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THU.

MODERATE TO STRONG N WIND ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA DIMINISH BELOW 
20 KT BY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES