000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 19 2010

UPDATED FOR LATEST WIND FORECASTS TO AFFECT GAP WIND AREA AND
FOR GULF OF CALIFORNIA 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 3N78W 5N90W 10N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 130W 
TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 155-160 KT JETSTREAM ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 
32N140W TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS DECREASE TO 125 
KT INTO NW MEXICO. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ALONG 
JET ARE BRUSHING THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA. AN E TO W RIDGE 
IS S OF THE JET WITH AXIS FROM 17N140W TO 15N130W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR MASS IS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 
120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 
25N100W SW TO 15N105W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 20N E OF 120W HAS 
SUPPRESSED ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ.

A TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS FROM 10N110W TO EQUATOR 
AT 128W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.

DISSIPATING COLD EXTENDS FROM THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 
31N111W ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N115W TO 25N124.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N125W TO 26N140W. STRONG W-NW
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE IN 
AND RE-ENFORCE THIS FRONT ON WED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH 
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS 
CENTERED NEAR 23N116W. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE 
N OF 15N W OF 120W TO THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES 
TO MOVE W ALONG THE ITCZ WITH AXIS FROM 12N114W TO 5N123W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 
8N-11N

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 20 KT THU.

NLY WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DECREASE TO 
BELOW 20 KT WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS