000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 18 2010

UPDATED FOR LATEST WIND FORECASTS TO AFFECT GAP WIND AREA AND
FOR GULF OF CALIFORNIA 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 5N100W 7N115W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 115W-118W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 155-160 KT JETSTREAM ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 
32N140W THEN TO 130 KT AT 30N125W THEN 90-100 KT TO CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE BRUSHING
THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA. AN E TO W RIDGE IS S OF THE
JET WITH AXIS FROM 17N140W TO 15N130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH
DRY STABLE AIR MASS IS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF
TEXAS SW TO 15N110W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 20N E OF 110W
HAS SUPPRESSED ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ.

A TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS FROM 10N120W TO 4N140W.
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 125W.

COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N127W TO 26N140W. STRONG W-NW
WINDS...25-30 KT..ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
WED AS THE FRONT GETS RE-ENFORCED ON WED. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH 
PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 24N114W. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS ARE N OF 14N W OF 120W TO THE COLD FRONT.

NLY WINDS 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT BY THIS
EVENING.

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAY
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30 KT TUE THEN BACK DOWN TO 20 KT WED.

NLY WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DECREASE TO 
BELOW 20 KT TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS