000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 05N90W TO 08N106W TO 06N120W 
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 79W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 06N133W TO 06N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED N OF 
ABOUT 20N WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING THE 
STRONGEST WINDS N OF ABOUT 25N AND MEASURING UP TO 100 KNOTS. 
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ALONG 
115W N OF 18N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
FROM ABOUT 08N TO 22N W OF 120W. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE 
LOCATED OVER THE TROPICS IN A 7 TO 8 DEGREE WIDE BAND CENTERED 
FROM 15N105W TO 07N120W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 
15N105W TO 07N108W. ALSO AT THE SURFACE A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT 
IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N120W TO NEAR 25N124W. A STRONG COLD FRONT 
IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. IN THE AREA 
FROM N OF 28N W OF 130W WINDS ARE SW TO W 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. ALSO FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 125W WINDS ARE NE TO E 20 
TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE 
IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 30N118W TO 20N110W TO 00N85W TO 00N140W 
TO 30N140W TO 30N118W WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 
11 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL. THE NW SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD 
AS HIGH AS 24 FEET N OF 26N W OF 128W IN 48 HOURS.

E OF 105W...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA E OF 105W AS 
INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY 
LIGHT EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SW WINDS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. A 
MINIMAL GALE IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA WINDS ARE AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB