000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171014 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JAN 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W TO 04N91W TO 08N104W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM S AND 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 106W. ...DISCUSSION... VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WLYS WERE ANALYZED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC W OF 140W...BETWEEN 30N AND 40N WITH CORE VELOCITIES NEAR 150 KT. THIS WLY FLOW BECAME DIFFLUENT NEAR 140W...WITH THE NWLY FLOW DIVING SE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NRN NEW MEXICO S THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN CONTINUING BEYOND A WEAK MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURL NEAR 14N144W. BROAD CONVERGENCE IN N TO NW FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WAS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE N OF THE TROUGH W OF 130W AND WITHIN 180 NM NW OF TROUGH E OF 130W. THIS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP E ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN LIFT OUT TO THE ENE ACROSS THE ERN U.S.AND LEAVE A BROAD AND RELATIVELY FLAT TROUGH ALONG 90W N OF 16N. SE OF THE TROUGH WAS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N89W WHICH DOMINATED THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC E OF 106W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS IT IS NUDGED EWD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SLOWING IT FORWARD MOTION ACROSS NW PORTIONS...EXTENDING FROM 30N121W TO 25N130W THEN CONTINUED WSW AS A SHEAR LINE TO 25N130W. LARGE NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE THE ENTIRE AREA....MIXING WITH NE TRADE SWELLS S OF 15N W OF 130W...WHERE NE TO E WINDS WERE 20-25 KT...AND ALSO MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL MOVING N ACROSS THE EQUATOR OVER THE AREA S OF 10N W OF 83W. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KT...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER JUST SCRAPING THE AREA...AND A NEW PULSE OF NW SWELLS DRIVING COMBINED SEAS TO ABOUT 25 FT ALONG 30N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SEAS WERE ANALYZED 8 TO 11 FT BETWEEN 90W AND 120W...PRIMARILY IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...AND 6 TO 8 FT E OF 90W. SEAS E OF 130W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT PULSE OF NW SWELL. GAP WINDS...A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 04 UTC REVEALED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 15N SPILLING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE...AS SEAS BUILD BRIEFLY TO 11 FT TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN 6-9 HOURS AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND WINDS VEER QUICKLY TO THE E AND SE ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY 48 HOURS. NE WINDS OF 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT BY 24 HOURS THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT. A 02 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND THESE NLY WINDS WILL PULSE AROUND 20 KT THROUGH MON NIGHT....WITH DOWNSTREAM SEAS HOVERING AT OR JUST BELOW 8 FT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING