000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS ALONG 05N78W TO 03N90W TO 07N105W TO 08N111W TO 07N122W 
TO 06N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
07N124W TO 05N130W.  

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 18N W OF 100W...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE THE FLOW OVER THIS AREA 
WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 
ABOUT 90 KT. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE 
NORTHWESTERLY IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 25N125W. A JET STREAM 
IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 20N130W TO 25N122W TO BEYOND 32N118W... 
WINDS ARE STRONGEST AT THE N END. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 115W N OF 20N IS MOVING E ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
THROUGH 32N127W TO 25.5N134W AND THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY 
FRONT TO NEAR 23N140W. N OF 29N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT SW 
WINDS ARE 20 KT WITH SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE N 
OF 20N W OF BAJA PENINSULA WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS 9 
TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST OVER THE NW PART. THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1020 MB HIGH 
IS POSITIONED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF 30N136W...THE 
HIGH WILL MOVE ESE ABOUT 15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

S OF 18N W OF 100W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM ABOUT 08N 
TO 15N W OF 110W. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE FROM 10N TO 18N AND LIGHT OVER THE DEEP TROPICS. A 
COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE LOCATED S OF 10N...ONE EXTENDS 
FROM 10N103W TO 05N110W AND THE SECOND IS LOCATED ALONG 123W 
FROM 06N TO 09N. FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 120W NE TO E WINDS ARE 20 
TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN MAINLY NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE IN 
THE AREA BOUNDED BY 20N140W TO 20N105W TO 00N93W TO 00N140W TO 
20N140W WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS 9 TO 13 FT IN MAINLY 
NW SWELL.  

E OF 100W...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE MOSTLY MODERATE OVER THE E PART OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 91W INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE TO E WINDS ARE TO 20 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 
8 FT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB