000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N100W TO 06N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
NO GALES THIS EVENING IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...THOUGH 
THERE ARE A FEW REGIONS OF MODERATE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.  A 
MODEST COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS 
CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR AREA AND IS 
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING TOMORROW.  NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY 
WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER...WITH 
FEW IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS NOR A GOOD ASCAT OR WINDSAT PASS DURING 
THE EVENING TODAY...THE AMPLITUDE OF THESE WINDS IS AN EDUCATED 
GUESS...BUT LIKELY BELOW GALE FORCE.  A PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT IS 
ONGOING WEST OF NICARAGUA AND WAS JUST OBSERVED BY THE WINDSAT 
TO HAVE WINDS JUST BELOW 20 KT.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST 
THAT THE WINDS WILL REACH OUR THRESHOLD - 20 KT - FOR THE HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.  AS USUAL...NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
PREVALENT WEST OF ABOUT 120W AND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.  NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO 
HIGH NW SWELL...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATES NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE MAIN SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE FORECAST IS THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT.  THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE 
WITH ONSET EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW...PEAKING AROUND 25 TO 30  
KT SUNDAY MORNING...AND DECAYING IT MONDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF 
IS SLOWER IN THE ONSET AND NOT AS STRONG IN AMPLITUDE.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG PLUME OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.  THIS MOISTURE WILL REACH 
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY.  
AWAY FROM THIS PLUME...TYPICAL STRONGLY SUBSIDENT FLOW DOMINATES 
THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA