000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 2100 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 05N77W TO 06N100W TO 04N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 95W TO 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
NO GALES THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...THOUGH 
THERE ARE A FEW REGIONS OF MODERATE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.  A 
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TO 25 KT IS CUTTING ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
DISSIPATING TOMORROW.  BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST 
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN SHORTLY.  NORTH 
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A GOOD ASCAT OR WINDSAT PASS DURING THE DAY 
TODAY...THE AMPLITUDE OF THESE WINDS IS AN EDUCATED GUESS...BUT 
LIKELY BELOW GALE FORCE.  LIKEWISE...A PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT IS 
ONGOING WEST OF NICARAGUA BUT IT TOO HAS NEARLY NO OBSERVATIONS 
AVAILABLE.    BOTH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTHERLIES AND 
PAPAGAYO EASTERLIES SHOULD RELAX TOMORROW.  AS USUAL... 
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES AROUND 20 KT ARE PREVALENT WEST OF ABOUT 
120W AND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  NEARLY 
ENTIRE REGION IS DOMINATED BY NW SWELL...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE 
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATES NORTH OF THE 
REGION.

THE MAIN SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE FORECAST IS THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT.  THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE 
WITH ONSET EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW...PEAKING AROUND 25 KT 
SUNDAY MORNING...AND DECAYING IT MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE ECMWF IS 
SLOWER IN THE ONSET AND NOT AS STRONG IN AMPLITUDE.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA