000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 02N79W TO 06N105W TO 05N107W TO 06N113W 
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...AND 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 113W AND BETWEEN 
115W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 12N139W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 
30N129W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A VERY DRY AND 
STABLE AIR MASS IS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 100W...HOWEVER SOME MID TO 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF 
THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NEW MEXICO ACROSS MEXICO TO 10N111W. 
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS PANAMA TO 02N88W. A 115-145 KT 
NORTHERLY JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA 
NEAR 32N116W TO 21N108W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE IN 
THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 10N111W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 123W.

AT THE SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 32N125W WITH 
A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING STRONG NE TO E TRADES 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 140W 
FROM THE NW WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 25N 
W OF 135W.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE HIGH W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 
TROUGHINESS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. STRONG N-NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT 
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... 
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY SAT AS THE 
GRADIENT RELAXES. A LOCAL FORECAST TOOL BASED ON PREVIOUS 
RESEARCH DIAGNOSES ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF GALE FORCE 
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM A 
GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME.

THREE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN ITCZ. THE EASTERN 
MOST TROUGH IS ALONG 105W FROM 02N TO 08N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
CONFINED TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND TROUGH 
EXTENDS 02N115W TO 08N114W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE 
TROUGH AXIS FROM 05N TO 08N. ANOTHER TROUGH IS TO THE W WITH THE 
AXIS ALONG 136W FROM 03N TO 10N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE 
TROUGH AXIS.

...GAP WINDS...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH THE 
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH IN PLACE NEAR THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA 
BORDER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT ON FRI.

NE-E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
DOWNSTREAM TO 91W. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO NEAR 
20 KT ON FRI...THEN WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN THEREAFTER TO 
ABOVE/BELOW 20 KT DUE TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW 
ENHANCEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY