000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N83W 4N95W 6N110W 4N125W 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 12N139W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 
32N128W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY AND STABLE 
AIR MASS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W...HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER NEW MEXICO ACROSS MEXICO TO 18N103W. AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS PANAMA TO 1N88W. A 115-145 KT NLY JETSTREAM
FROM NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 32N116W TO 21N108W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 12N108W TO THE EQUATOR
AT 121W. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HAS
SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS,

HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 33N126W WITH RIDGE COVERING THE AREA 
N OF 14N W OF 110W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY RIDGE 
PRODUCING STRONG NE TO E TRADES ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  COLD 
FRONT APPROACHING 140W WITH S WINDS INCREASING N OF 25N W OF 
135W.

THREE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN ITCZ. ONE TROUGH FROM 
10N104W TO 5N106W TO 2N104W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE 
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
9N112W TO 3N114W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH FROM 
5N-7N. ANOTHER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 10N134W TO 3N136W, ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS,

WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND FORECAST TO BE LESS 20 KT IN 24 HOURS.

WINDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 KT IN 48 HOURS.

STRONG N WINDS CONTINUE IN GULF OF PANAMA WITH REMNANTS OF 
FRONTAL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER WESTERN PANAMA.  WINDS EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS