000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141006
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 06N88W TO 03N98W TO 05N112W TO 04N124W TO 
07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W 
OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 12N139W HAS 
RIDGE EXTEND TO 32N130W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINTAIN 
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS UNDER ITS COVERAGE N OF 1`0N W OF 
110W.  DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N108W 
TO 12N110W TO 00N123W.  DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 4 DEG OF TROUGH AXIS 
EXCEPT MINOR ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ADVECTED NE BY 70 KT JET 
CORE ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  STRONG 
JET CORE BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH...OVER 150 KT...RACES 
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AND COULD INCREASE 
CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT IN VICINITY OF 
ARIZONA/WESTERN TEXAS/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS LINGERING MOISTURE  
REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONE.  

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB AT 32N126W WITH RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING TO 23N140W AND W OF AREA TO NEAR 20N147W.  TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY RIDGE PRODUCING STRONG NE TO E TRADES 
ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  COLD FRONT APPROACHING 140W WITH S 
WINDS INCREASING N OF 23N W OF 129W DURING NEXT 48 HRS.

TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ ALONG 116W AND 136W 
MOVE W AT 15 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
EITHER OF THESE FEATURES.

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING NEXT 48 HRS 
RESULT IN STRONG N WINDS ALONG W COAST OF PENINSULA N OF 23N E 
OF 117W.

...GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE WITHIN 6 HRS.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS 
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN 6 HRS.

STRONG N WINDS CONTINUE IN GULF OF PANAMA WITH REMNANTS OF 
FRONTAL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER WESTERN PANAMA.  WINDS EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES