000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 02N80W TO 04N109W TO 04N117W TO 06N129W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N132W TO 34N132W. A 120 
TO 130 KT JETSTREAM ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N124W TO 
19N110W...WHERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS DECREASE TO THE 95 TO 105 KT 
RANGE. THE JET THEN CONTINUES TO THE E INTO WESTERN MEXICO NEAR
19N105W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS 
EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 112W. ANOTHER MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 06N118W TO 
SW MEXICO NEAR 17N100W AND INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT 
MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE ITCZ UP 
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N126W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 23N140W AND W OF THE 
AREA TO NEAR 20N147W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY THIS 
RIDGE IS PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E TRADES ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 140W FROM THE W... 
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE 
TO 20 TO 25 KT N OF 23N W OF 129W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 
COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN THE N-NE PORTION OF THE AREA HAS 
DISSIPATED WITH REMNANT BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS N OF 23N 
BETWEEN THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 128W.

THREE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE EASTERN 
MOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N110W TO 07N109W...AND TO THE W 
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N118W TO 07N116W...AND ANOTHER 
FROM 04N130W TO 09N130W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE BAJA 
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AS A RESULT NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 24N AND ALSO N OF 23N W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 
117W.

...GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS 
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER 
WESTERN PANAMA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 
KT ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY