000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 3N78W 4N105W 6N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 132W TO 
140W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 
10N142W TO 32N126W. A 120-130 KT JETSTREAM ENTERS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 32N135W TO 28N119W...WHERE WINDS DECREASE TO 95-105 KT
THE JET CONTINUES TO WESTERN MEXICO NEAR 24N106W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS AREA N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 110W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE BIG 
BEND OF TEXAS ACROSS MEXICO TO 18N106W. A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM
IS SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N102W THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
NE ALONG THE JET. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS
EXTENDS FROM 13N112W TO 2N130W.

DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO 28N132W. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A COUPLE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRES...BOTH 1022 MB...ARE JUST E AND W OF THE 
FRONT. ONE NEAR 31N133W AND THE OTHER IS NEAR 28N127W...WITH
AN ELONGATED RIDGE ALONG 28N PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT NE TRADES 
ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED 
IN THE ITCZ...ONE IS FROM 9N104W TO 3N106W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE FROM AXIS FROM 5N-7N. THE SECOND 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N126W TO 3N127W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. 

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE 
TONIGHT AND LESS THAN 20 KT BY FRI.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS 
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT 
AND LESS THAN 20 KT FRI.

STRONG NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
FRONTAL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER PANAMA. WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS