000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N78W TO 05N105W TO 04N117W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 100W 
TO 108W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM 
OF AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 10N143W TO 30N115W.  VERY DRY STABLE AIR MASS 
ACROSS AREA N OF 08N W OF 113W UNDER RIDGE COVER DUE TO MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDING FLOW.  NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SW 
FROM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 30N100W TO 05N123W.  JETSTREAM 110 
KT ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
BAY OF CAMPECHE.

AT THE SURFACE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 
27N135W.  SURFACE HIGH PRES 1023 MB FORMS ELONGATED RIDGE ALONG 
28N PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT NE TRADES ALONG ITS SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY.  COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN TRADES WITHIN 
ITCZ...ONE ALONG 108W WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND 
A SECOND ALONG 129W WITH MINOR CONVECTION. 

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS ISTHMUS 
...BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE WED AND BELOW 
20 KT BY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GALE FORCE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS COSTA RICA 
AND NICARAGUA AND EXTEND TO DOWNWIND TO 100W.  WINDS DIMINISH TO 
BELOW GALE FORCE WED AND BELOW 20 KT THU.

GULF OF PANAMA...STRONG N WINDS CROSS PANAMA INTO GULF FORCE BY 
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER PANAMA.  WINDS EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH AND BECOME BELOW 20 KT BY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES