000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 4N78W 6N85W 4N105W 6N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
87W-92W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 111W-116W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 18N140W WITH A VERY 
DRY STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W. A 100-140 KT
JETSTREAM ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N140W TO 31N120W THEN TO THE SE
WHERE WINDS DECREASE TO 90-100 KT TO 21N111W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 138W. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CYCLONIC 
CENTER NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N113W THEN WSW TO 05N126W. A 95-105 KT 
JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 4N83W WITH
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N129W TO 25N140W. A BAND
OF BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A
1021 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 27N122W. FLOW AROUND THE 
SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 
7N-20N W OF 115W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG SE MEXICAN  
COAST IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH WED THEN DECREASE
TO BELOW GALE FORCE THU.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
BEFORE DECREASING TO BELOW GALE FORCE ON THU.

GULF OF PANAMA...20-25 KT NLY WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH GULF OF 
PANAMA N OF 05N FROM 79W-82W. WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE DUE TO LOW 
PRES OVER NE COLOMBIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS