000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N78W TO 06N85W TO 04N103W TO 06N120W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 750 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
85W-102W AND FROM 110W-116W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CYCLONIC CENTER OVER ARIZONA AT 
29N104W ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 08N120W THEN W TO 
08N137W.  SW JET CORE DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH AXIS ADVECTING 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO BAY OF 
CAMPECHE.  SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HIGH PRES 1032 MB OVER WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO PRESENTLY AT 28N94W PRECLUDES ANY SIGNIFICANT 
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS MOISTURE.  

UPSTREAM FROM TROUGH IS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS MID-UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE CROSSES 140W INTO E PAC.  RIDGE BRINGS VERY DRY STABLE AIR 
MASS ACROSS BASIN W OF 125W.  WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLOMBIA 
ADVECTS MINOR AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO ITCZ E OF 102W TO PROMPT 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THERE. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1021 MB AT 28N123W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 17N113W. 
RIDGE REFUSES TO BUDGE AND EFFECTIVELY STOPPING COLD FRONT 
PRESENTLY FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W FROM ANY FURTHER EASTWARD 
INTRUSION.  SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND 
MIGHT BE ABLE TO DENT RIDGE FURTHER E BY THU.  MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOW LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL...AS HIGH AS 25 FT...ASSOCIATED 
WITH SECOND FRONT ENTER E PAC WED AND SPREAD SE WELL BEYOND 
FORECAST PERIOD.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG SE MEXICAN  
COAST STILL WARRANT STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE  
DIMINISHING TO GALE FORCE TUE AND WED.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...STRONG FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NW 
CARIBBEAN STILL PROMPTS STRONG WINDS ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
FONSECA TODAY AND WED.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ACROSS PANAMA SPILL 
INTO GULF OF PANAMA N OF 05N FROM 79W-82W.  WINDS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE OVER NEXT 48 HOURS AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS IN 
PLACE DUE TO LOW PRES OVER NE COLOMBIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES