000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JAN 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 2N90W 3N100W 6N110W 7N120W 7N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-113W AND 60 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM A LOW OVER ARIZONA SW TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 14N117W...THEN W TO 11N127W TO 11N132W AND TO 11N139W WHERE A COL REGION IS OBSERVED. A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. SOME HIGHLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND IN THE REGION WHERE THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET INTERSECTS THE ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ THERE FROM 4N120W TO 10N118W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE AS IT IS BEING PUSHED EWD BY A STRONG ZONAL JET N OF THE AREA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS ARE RAPIDLY PROGRESSING EWD N OF THE AREA TO THE W OF 130W. THE FIRST ONE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N138W TO 27N140W. SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE WITHIN 240 NM SE OF FRONT WITH SEAS 12 TO 18 FT IN NW SWELL. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY TUE NIGHT FROM NEAR 30N130W TO 26N140W AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA AND MEXICAN BAJA COASTS. THE 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY NEAR 28N121W WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH WED...THEN REFORM N OF THE AREA WED AS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N128W SE TO 22N115W BY WED EVENING. WINDS E OF THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN TUE AFTERNOON. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ HAS INDUCED AN AREA OF TRADES FROM 7N TO 15N AND W OF 120W. THESE TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH LITTLE CHANGE...HOWEVER LARGE NW SWELLS CREATING SEAS OF UP TO 18 FT ARE FORECAST WITHIN THIS AREA BY WED AFTERNOON. FARTHER E...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA SW TO JUST S OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS INTERSECTS THE ITCZ NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTION WAS ACTIVE HERE EARLIER TODAY. MOISTURE IS POOLED HERE BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH COSTA RICA AND THE ITCZ WITH SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES IN THE 2.0 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT THE POOL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ERODE AS THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO DECREASE TUE AND WED AS A RESULT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE SE MEXICAN COAST WILL HOLD STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GALE FORCE TUE THROUGH WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SEAS UP 20 FT IN THE GULF WILL BE SLOW IN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS NE SWELL SPREADS THE MAXIMUM SEAS W AND SW OF THE GULF. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT STORM FORCE CONDITIONS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SUN AND INDUCED GALE FORCE WINDS THERE AS WELL. DUE TO THE STRONG GRADIENT REMAINING THERE...THEE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 48 HRS. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH WED. GULF OF PANAMA...20 TO 25 KT N WINDS ACROSS PANAMA ARE SPILLING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 5N. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER NE COLOMBIA AND THE HIGH PRES N OF THE COLD FRONT OVER COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THIS REGION ON WED EXPANDING THE AREA OF SEAS OVER 8 FT FARTHER W TO NEAR 90W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE