000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111013
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 02N78W TO 04N86W TO 03N96W TO 07N123W 07N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 105W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT 32N111W 
TO 14N127W TO 12N140W.  VERY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAYERS WITHIN 6 
DEG S OF 27N W OF AXIS.  JET CORE 90 KT SLIDES S ON W SIDE OF 
INTRUDING SOME MOISTURE IN UPPER LEVELS N OF 27N.  SIMILARLY A 95 KT 
JETSTREAM BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
...BUT HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER 1036 MB IN BAY OF CAMPECHE CURTAILS 
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.  

UPSTREAM MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 128W MAINTAINS DRY 
CONDITIONS IN REMAINDER OF E PAC W OF 125W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB AT 31N122W MAINTAINS DRY AND STABLE AIR  
MASS WITH STRATIFIED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 18N W OF 115W.  FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 116W ON S AND SW PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES 
GROWS IN AREA AND STRENGTH BY WED AS STRONG COLD FRONT SQUEEZES PRES 
GRADIENT WITH ITS APPROACH FROM THE NW.  

STRONG SW WINDS AND LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD 
FRONT AND ITS 983 MB DEEP LOW PRES WELL N OF AREA.  WINDS DIMINISH 
WITHIN 48 HRS AS LOW PRES IS FORCED NE BY BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM HIGH 
PRES CENTER BUT SWELLS SPREAD SE TO REACH EFFECTIVELY ALMOST ENTIRE 
E PAC BASIN W OF 110W.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STORM FORCE WINDS DIMINISH TO GALE WITHIN 24 
HRS BUT CONTINUE THERE THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB SITS 
OVER GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AND WELL BEYOND.  

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...ALTHOUGH GALE FORCE WINDS ON 
CARIBBEAN SIDE HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY...GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN 
OVER BOTH GULFS.  WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER NE AND E BY WED ALLOWING 
GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE ON E PAC SIDE.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE AT A LESSER STRENGTH AS ITS SOURCE...LOW PRES OVER 
COLOMBIA...WEAKENS.  SEAS HAVE TOO SHORT A FETCH TO BE ABLE TO 
DEVELOP INTO HIGHER VALUES AND SHOULD NOT EXCEED 9 FT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES