000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110345
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 5N85W 
3N95W 5N110W 8N120W 6N131W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W-112W...AND WITHIN 30 NM N 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SW 
TO 8N89W TO NEAR 3N95W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH COUPLED 
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA 
N OF THE ITCZ HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
WEAK TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 91W.

FURTHER W...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SW TO 
21N118W TO 13N128W TO 11N140W. A RATHER ROBUST JETSTREAM BRANCH 
ALONG THE SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS 
MEXICO FROM 16N TO 24N.

TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 7N TO 16N W OF 116W ARE EXPECTED TO 
EXPAND SLIGHTLY E OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES OF 1021 MB 
CURRENTLY NEAR 31N124W WITH A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 23N139W SHIFTS 
SLIGHTLY SE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IT WILL BE FORCED SE AHEAD OF 
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM NW OF THE AREA. THIS 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS MON AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE CORE 
OF THE SYSTEM LIFTS NE OVER THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
CA AND MEXICAN BAJA COASTS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND 
THE RIDGE HAS INDUCED SW WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AHEAD OF IT JUST 
NW OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON INTO 
TUE AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA FROM 30N131W TO 25N140W 
TUE NIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELLS THAT ARE FORECAST BY MOST OF THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MODELS TO 
REACH POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 22 TO 24 FT OVER THE FAR NW BOUNDARY OF 
THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING STABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PREVAILS WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED S OF 14N AND W OF 103W.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A PERSISTENTLY STRONG PRES GRADIENT OF AROUND 
10 MB CONTINUES THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING WITH 
VERY PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING INTO MEXICO AND THE FAR 
EASTERN PACIFIC ALLOWING FOR STORM FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE. THESE
WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MON AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY 
WEAKENING TO GALE BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AT WHICH TIME MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES N TO NE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT. LARGE SEAS...UP TO 
19 FT...WILL SUBSIDE TO THE RANGE OF 10 TO 14 FT BY TUE AND CONTINUE
A SUBSIDING INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT 
STORM FORCE CONDITIONS TO TEHUANTEPEC HAS PUSHED THROUGH NICARAGUA
WITH SAME STRONG PRES GRADIENT AFFECTING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
NOW INITIATING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE NOW OCCURRING THROUGH 
THE GULF OF FONSECA...AND FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NE TO E AND
DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PANAMA...N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND PUSH EVEN SLIGHTLY TO THE S OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE N INTERACTS WITH
LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA MAINTAINING THE PRES GRADIENT. THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME BY 48 HRS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 9 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE