000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JAN 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 5N85W 3N95W 5N110W 8N120W 6N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 81W BETWEEN 117W-120W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-91W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-111W. ...DISCUSSION... STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A 90 KT ZONAL UPPER JET CENTERED ALONG 20N FROM 100W TO 125W IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS JET...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS LIES OVER FORECAST WATERS...WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 90W. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE S OF THE FRONT STRETCHED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND N OF THE ITCZ HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAKENING TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ZONAL JET STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS LIES A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA S ALONG 116W TO 25N AND SW TO 12N140W. THE SWLY TAIL OF THE JET S OF THIS TROUGH AXIS W OF 116W IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD WHICH HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF AS A BAND OF CIRRUS. WITHIN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE JET LIES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ PRIMARILY E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N119W TO 05N121W. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 7N TO 15N W OF 120W ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY E OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES OF 1024 MB CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N123W SHIFTS S OF 30N BY TUE. THE HIGH WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS MON AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA AND MEXICAN BAJA COASTS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE RIDGE HAS INDUCED WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AHEAD OF IT JUST NW OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. NW SWELL FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT DISSIPATED OVER NW WATERS YESTERDAY HAS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 105W...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS TO 16 FT OVER N CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY DAMPEN WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN WHILE THE NEXT BATCH OF NW SWELL MOVES INTO NW WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BRINGING SEAS TO 25 FT OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A PERSISTENTLY STRONG PRES GRADIENT OF AROUND 10 MB CONTINUES THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 1534 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45 KT THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF.BASED ON THIS AND VERY PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING INTO MEXICO AND THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC THE CURRENT STORM WARNING SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MON AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO TUE AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME N TO NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE OF 30 TO 35 KT. LARGE SEAS...UP TO 21 FT...WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 14 FT BY TUE. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT STORM FORCE CONDITIONS TO TEHUANTEPEC HAS PUSHED THROUGH NICARAGUA WITH SAME STRONG PRES GRADIENT AFFECTING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NOW INITIATING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE NOW OCCURRING THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA...AND FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NE TO E AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GULF OF PANAMA...N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND PUSH EVEN SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...MAINTAINING THE PRES GRADIENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 9 FT WITHIN ABOUT 24 HRS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE