000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101537 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JAN 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CAN BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 06N85W TO 03N95W TO 08N122W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 150 NM N AND 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 80W AS WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 119W. ...DISCUSSION... STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A 90 KT ZONAL UPPER JET CENTERED ALONG 20N FROM 100W TO 125W IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS JET...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS LIES OVER FORECAST WATERS...WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 90W. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE S OF THE FRONT STRETCHED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 2.5 INCHES IN THIS REGION AS WELL AS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 80W. CONVECTION THERE IS DRIVEN BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER COLOMBIA. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ZONAL JET STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS LIES A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA S ALONG 116W TO 25N AND SW TO 12N140W. THE SOUTHWESTERLY TAIL OF THE JET S OF THIS TROUGH AXIS W OF 116W IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD WHICH HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF AS A BAND OF CIRRUS. WITHIN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE JET LIES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ PRIMARILY E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N119W TO 05N121W. THE 0622 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER WATERS W OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN 15W AND THE ITCZ. THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH SLIGHTLY AS THE HIGH PRES CURRENTLY NEAR 35N123W SHIFTS S OF 30N BY TUE. THE HIGH WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NW OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS MON AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA AND MEXICAN BAJA COASTS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE RIDGE HAS INDUCED WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AHEAD OF IT JUST NW OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. NW SWELL FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT DISSIPATED OVER NW WATERS YESTERDAY HAS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 105W...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS TO 16 FT OVER N CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY DAMPEN WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN WHILE THE NEXT BATCH OF NW SWELL MOVES INTO NW WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BRINGING SEAS TO 25 FT OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT MISSED THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT WINDS HAVE PENETRATED UP TO 550 NM SW. THERE IS A REMARKABLY STRONG PRES GRADIENT...AROUND 10 MB...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. A STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MON...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 25 TO 35 KT BY TUE MORNING. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...THE 0300 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS IN BOTH PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA TO 25 KT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT STORM FORCE CONDITIONS TO TEHUANTEPEC HAS JUST MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THERE BY AFTERNOON AND WINDS ARE EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AS WELL. WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY BY TUE...DIMINISHING WINDS BELOW 20 KT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA...BUT THE GALE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN TEHAUNTEPEC THROUGH TUE MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...20 TO 25 KT N WINDS ACROSS PANAMA ARE SPILLING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 06N. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND PUSH EVEN SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...MAINTAINING THE PRES GRADIENT. SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE 8 FT HERE LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER