000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JAN 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 6N105W 7N118W 8N127W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W-133W AND W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT HAD SLOWLY MADE ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN WATERS IS PHASING WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PHASED TROUGH IS PULLING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH THE JET CORE ALREADY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN WATERS HAS DECREASED AS A RESULT. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 4N107W TO 11N104W RESIDES NEAR A REGION OF DECREASING SPEED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL CONDITIONS. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF THE TROUGH IS STREAMING NE TO ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...TRANSPORTED BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 99W. OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N128W TO 21N133W TO W OF THE AREA AT 14N140W. SE OF THIS TROUGH AND BETWEEN THE EASTERN TROUGH BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS FROM 2N115W TO 15N118W TO 24N121W TO WELL N OF THE AREA AT 30N119W. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM CORE WIND SPEEDS OF 70-100 KT LIES IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS JET STREAM BRANCH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS TO ACROSS MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY JOIN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PHASED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CURRENTLY...DIFFLUENCE INDUCED BY THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W IS ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ. EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST WITH THE JET ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER POOL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND IN THIS SAME REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE CONVERGED LOW LEVEL MOSITURE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE WHERE AS SW SHEAR BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER N WATERS...A 1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N126W WITH A RIDGE AXIS SW TO 23N140W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE STUBBORN RIDGE HAS INHIBITED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF FRONTS THAT HAVE NEARED THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. NW SWELLS HAVE BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 20 FT IN FAR NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND DAMPEN OUT. A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY N OF HAWAII WILL ALSO BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SE INTO FORECAST WATERS...BUT WILL BRING A NEW BATCH OF SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 18 FT BY MON MORNING IN NW WATERS. THE INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SW FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY MON IN NW WATERS AS WELL. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO N WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 55 KT IN 24 HRS AND CONTINUE INTO 48 HRS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 19 FT SUN AND MON UNDER THE CONSTANT STRONG N TO NE WINDS. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT STORM FORCE CONDITIONS TO TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALES TO PAPAGAYO BY EARLY MON MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS TO 30 KT CAN BE FOUND DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AND AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SAT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY SUN EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA AS WELL. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N BREEZE ACROSS PANAMA SPILLING INTO GULF OF PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. BY SUN AFTERNOON N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE