000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091528 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JAN 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 06N103W TO 08N120W TO 08N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 80W. ...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT HAD SLOWLY MADE ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN WATERS IS PHASING WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PHASED TROUGH IS PULLING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH THE JET CORE ALREADY WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN WATERS HAS DECREASED AS A RESULT. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 12N102W TO 04N106W RESIDES NEAR A REGION OF DECREASING SPEED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL CONDITIONS. HIGHLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE TROUGH. THE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS NE INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...TRANSPORTED BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET. A WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. FARTHER W...CONVECTION IS INHIBITED BY THE 70-90 KT ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER JET IN PLACE ALONG 21N BETWEEN 109N AND 137W. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM JET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS INTO MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY JOIN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PHASED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CURRENTLY...THE DIFFLUENCE INDUCED BY THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W IS YIELDING THE LARGEST AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER FORECAST WATERS. EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST WITH THE JET ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER POOL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND IN THIS SAME REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE CONVERGED LOW LEVEL MOSITURE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE WHERE AS SW SHEAR BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER N WATERS...A 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N126W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 23N140W...IS EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE STUBBORN RIDGE HAS INHIBITED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW WATERS FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W. NW SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 20 FT IN FAR NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND DAMPEN OUT. A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY N OF HAWAII WILL ALSO BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE SE INTO FORECAST WATERS...BUT WILL BRING A NEW BATCH OF SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 18 FT BY MON MORNING IN NW WATERS. THE INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SW FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY MON IN NW WATERS AS WELL. THE 0504 AND 0644 ASCAT PASSED SHOWS WINDS TO 20 KT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND W OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N121W TO 05N122W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0322 UTC SHOWED WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE. WINDS HAVE INCREASED SINCE THEN AND A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MON WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 55 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 19 FT SUN AND MON UNDER THE CONSTANT STRONG N TO NE WINDS. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT STORM FORCE CONDITIONS TO TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALES TO PAPAGAYO BY EARLY MON MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS TO 30 KT CAN BE FOUND DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AND AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SAT...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP TO THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AS WELL. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N BREEZE ACROSS PANAMA SPILLING INTO GULF OF PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. BY MON MORNING...20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER