000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 08N120W TO 08N134W TO 07N140W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS E OF 82W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N95W TO 
08N110W. PLUME OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING 
ADVECTED BY 110 KT JET CORE NE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FEEDING STRONG COLD FRONT 
PRESENTLY ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL.  S OF 06N E OF 106W REMAINS DRY 
UNDER MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA. 

UPSTREAM FROM LONGWAVE TROUGH IS RIDGE ALONG 123W MAINTAINING DRY 
AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER WESTERN PART OF BASIN EXCEPT AREA OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF 12N W OF 124W.  MINOR SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NW ALONG 122W.  FURTHER UPSTREAM
...WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 32N132W USHERS AREA OF MOIST 
AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM 32N135W TO 26N140W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED AT 31N126W 
WITH RIDGE TO 13N110W.  RIDGE BLOCK FURTHER E PROGRESS OF ABOVE 
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WHICH DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. 
HOWEVER...LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL FROM SYSTEM HAS ALREADY 
ENCROACHED INTO BASIN WITH SEAS TO 18 FT SPREADING AS FAR S AS THE 
EQUATOR.  S OF RIDGE FRESH TRADES BREEZE S OF 15N W OF 120W.  

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD FRONT THROUGH ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
DIGGING S ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS 
STRENGTHEN PRESENT GALE FORCE WINDS TO STORM FORCE AS HIGH AS 55 KT 
LATE SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 19 FT.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN CARIBBEAN SEEP 
THROUGH COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA INTO THESE GULF.  SUN...COLD FRONT 
PRESENTLY GENERATING STORM FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAKES 
ITS WAY SE ACROSS HONDURAS INCREASING WINDS TO STRONG IN BOTH GULFS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS LOW 
PRES 1009 MB OVER COLOMBIA REMAINS IN PLACE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES