000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082206 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JAN 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W TO 5N91W 6N101W 9N115W 7N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W-131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 07N115W IS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. NEAR THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS UPPER JET LIES A POOL OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 07N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS REGION. AS THE TROUGH AND JET PULL NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH HERE AND THE PLUME OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO PANAMA. ANOTHER POOL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/ECUADOR...JUST E OF THE RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 80W AND 82W WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THIS MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE HERE THROUGH SAT...BUT INCREASING SW SHEAR OVER THE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH IT BY SUN. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER N WATERS...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N126W WITH A RIDGE TO NEAR 23N117W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS RIDGE WILL INHIBIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW PORTION FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...NW SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 18 FT IN FAR NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND WILL REMAIN HIGHEST...IN THE 15 TO 20 FT RANGE...OVER NW WATERS THROUGH SAT. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND W OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM NEAR 8N119W TO 15N116W. THE LARGEST AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER FORECAST WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE SAT WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO WESTERN WATERS...INCREASING THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BRING THE TRADE WINDS DOWN TO 20 KT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. AS A RESULT...GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE STARTED TO AFFECT THE GULF AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SAT MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 55 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY UP TO 19 FT. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND BE SEEN AS NE TO E 20 TO 30 KT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THESE GULF. BY SUN...THE COLD FRONT GENERATING STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE 20 KT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AS WELL. GULF OF PANAMA...N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS N TO NE TRADES IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WEAKEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE