000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081537 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JAN 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CAN BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 02N83W TO 10N115W TO 07N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN W OF 129W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. ...DISCUSSION... THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 07N115W IS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N117W ALONG A TROUGH FROM 15N114W TO 06N118W EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THIS HAS DECREASED THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. CLOSER TO THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS UPPER JET LIES A POOL OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 07N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS REGION. AS THE TROUGH AND JET PULL NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH HERE AND THE PLUME OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO PANAMA. ANOTHER POOL OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/ECUADOR...JUST E OF THE RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 80W AND 82W WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THIS MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE HERE THROUGH SAT...BUT INCREASING SW SHEAR OVER THE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH IT BY SUN. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER N WATERS...A 1020 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N125W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 23N140W...IS EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE STUBBORN RIDGE WILL INHIBIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...NW SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 18 FT IN FAR NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND WILL REMAIN HIGHEST...IN THE 15 FT TO 20 FT RANGE...OVER NW WATERS THROUGH SAT. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THE 0704 ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND W OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N133W TO 05N135W. THE LARGEST AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER FORECAST WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE SAT WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO WESTERN WATERS...INCREASING THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BRING THE TRADE WINDS DOWN TO 20 KT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THE MOMENT AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE GULF BY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER THE REGION AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS WELL S INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SE MEXICO...LOOK FOR STORM FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP BY SAT EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 55 KT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT IN 48 HOURS. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0340 UTC SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND KEEP THE STRONG NE TO E FLOW IN THE GULF ON SAT. BY SUN...THE COLD FRONT GENERATING STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE 20 KT IN THE GULF OF FONSECA AS WELL. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N BREEZE ACROSS PANAMA SPILLING INTO GULF OF PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FLOW BELOW 20 KT SAT AS NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SLACKEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER